By Cecilia Nasmith
In spite of turning out to be a money-losing proposition, Northumberland County council voted at its October meeting to continue at least one component of the recent Commuter Connect pilot project for three more years – the service that takes local riders from a designated point to the Oshawa GO station.
Commuter Connect launched in September 2022 for a one-year pilot project to fill the gap created by VIA Rail's persistent refusal to bring back the daily commuter train it took out of service during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The service had two parts – the Northumberland line (through which Community Care Northumberland brought riders from distant communities like Brighton and Trent Hills to central points in Cobourg and Port Hope) and the Durham line (through which a private contractor took riders from these central points to the Oshawa GO station – offering easy access to Toronto from there).
Director of Economic Development, Planning and Strategic Initiatives Dan Borowec reported on the pilot project, which had been extended two months to allow users to make alternative arrangements upon the service's cancellation.
It had been funded by the county with $250,000 in gas-tax revenues and another $50,000 from MetroLinx.
With efforts to persuade VIA to restore Train 651 frustrated by a lack of response, Borowec said, there were high hopes that Commuter Connect could fill the gap. But even with an intensive campaign to create awareness and garner ridership, he said, “what we found over the course of the year is, we are a car culture.
“There were challenges in terms of population spread over our geography that make it very, very difficult for individuals to embrace the idea of transitioning from a car culture to public transportation and limited schedule options.”
Over the one-year pilot project, he said the Durham line cost $230,000 to operate, while attracting 3,055 riders and gaining revenues of $39,715. To put it another way, users paid $13 a ride but the real cost of each rider was $75.
Numbers were more discouraging on the Northumberland line, operating at a cost of $120,000 to serve 513 riders. They paid $9 a ride, but the real cost per rider was $234.
No one thought that continuing the Northumberland line was an option, but there was debate over the Durham line.
To make it break even, Borowec said, there would have to be 60-70 riders a week, or about 18,000 in a year – not taking into account any potential increases in operating costs.
County councillors saw one obstacle to bringing costs down as a marketing campaign that somehow didn't bring about wider awareness of this service.
Still, many councillors saw providing transit as a service to residents as opposed to a break-even proposition. There isn't a transit service in Canada that breaks even, Cobourg Councillor Lucas Cleveland pointed out.
“I'm curious what alternative is there for those riders with no VIA, no GO and potentially no car,” he said.
Investment Attraction Officer TJ Flynn estimated that, for the Durham line alone, users generate 30% of the cost of operation.
“You would probably need to subsidize to the tune of $160,000,” Flynn guessed, adding that this depends on sustained and perhaps even expanded ridership.
“It would be very, very tough,” he warned.
Brighton Councillor Brian Ostrander wondered if they would be better off sinking that money into renewed lobbying efforts to get VIA to bring back its commuter train as opposed to “running a bus down the 401.”
Borowec reported that there had been zero dialogue with VIA for at least a couple of months. Cleveland said he had tried to engage VIA by e-mail and by phone for 11 months, but had never even received a reply.
Council departed from its procedural rules to permit three Commuter Connect users to address county council.
Lance McIntosh works from home except for having to be in Toronto a couple of days a week, and is also one of the more active volunteers lobbying VIA to no avail.
In Toronto, he often speaks to people who want to relocate out of the city, and one of the first things they want to know about Northumberland is about the reliability of transportation to Toronto. He expects realtors often receive the same query from potential buyers.
“Driving the 401 each way every day in the winter months is like asking someone to play traffic-based Russian Roulette. The odds are against you, and most people will simply no longer do it,” McIntosh said.
“This is a serious, potentially community-threatening economic reality, We need a daily 6:15 westbound bus to Oshawa and that 6:20 eastbound bus back – it's still a 12-hour day, but that's acceptable to almost any potential new resident.”
McIntosh said that keeping the Durham line is an investment in the community.
“If you don't invest, this community won't grow – it will shrink. Unless you just want it to be a retirement community, it won't grow. You need families and workers and taxpayers.”
He speculated on measures that might make the service work better, like increased fares.
“There has to be a way to make it work – otherwise, you will see a vast emigration from this community.”
Janet Bunton-Henson said that providing the means for local residents to get to work was more important as a service than as a money-maker – especially since VIA has reneged on its mandate as a Crown corporation and failed to support Northumberland residents, and left Commuter Connect to do the job.
“Of late, they have expanded their schedule so that more commuters are riding the bus,” she said.
“Since that time, the bus is packed. There's a window of time we have grown, and we need more time to assist the ridership viability of this.
“There's a new schedule. Let's give it time. Let's see how the ridership increases.”
Lisa Link spoke from the perspective of a student, logging in via Zoom from Ajax. She is discouraged by the lack of awareness of the service. This includes her doctor in Port Hope and staffers at employment centres in both Cobourg and Port Hope. These people need to know, she said, and more promotion is needed.
Cleveland pointed out that the $160,000 required to keep the service is .05% of the county budget.
“I absolutely believe there are certain things government provides as a public good, and I agree transportation is in that category of a public good,” Port Hope Councillor Olena Hankivsky commented.
“I agree we have to be investing for the future of this community, We talk about young people leaving this community to go to the city for better jobs – if we provide more consistent transportation opportunities for people to stay and to commute and to come home to stay in the community...” Hankivsky said.
“If we want to build a community of the future, it's a necessity. If want to attract young people, if we want to keep young people, this is absolutely necessary.”
“We are talking about the livelihood of people, which is certainly pulling at my heartstrings. However, I have to look at the business side of things,” Hamilton Township Councillor Scott Jibb said.
“We have to take a hard look at that $160,000 loss on the Durham line.”
“In Cobourg, we spend $1.5-million a year on transit for 350 riders,” Cleveland retorted.
“We don't look at it as costing $1.5-million. We look at it as providing $1.5-million worth of quality service for our residents.”
Cleveland also cautioned that raising the price too high “is the fastest way to kill your business model,” urging moderation in any fare increase.
“It's unfortunate that, after one year, we are willing to scrap a program that's just starting to catch wind.”
“If the private sector could make it work, they would,” Brighton Councillor Brian Ostrander said.
“When that doesn't happen, it's where government comes in. It's why we have arenas in our purview. It's why we have police services and fire services and why we operate transit systems.”
Ostrander added, however, that his support comes with the suggestion that some tweaking should be done to make it work on a more cost-effective basis.
Cleveland put a motion on the floor to continue the Durham line for the foreseeable future – amended by Ostrander to continue for three years and include the cost in the county's 2024-2026 budget deliberations. The motion passed unanimously.
