By Cecilia Nasmith
Increases in key numbers indicate that the seventh wave of COVID-19, the one associated with the BA5 subvariant, is not going away.
The pronouncement was made by Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit Medical Office of Health Dr. Natalie Bocking at the August COVID-19 media scrum.
Dr. Bocking offered figures to support her statement, such as the fact that the number of new lab-confirmed cases last week was 120 (50 of them in Northumberland County, up from 30 the previous week).
The number of outbreaks qualifying for monitoring by the health unit stands at 11, seven of them in long-term-care or retirement homes. Though this is down from the 23 outbreaks they managed in the last wave, she said, the number is heading up.
“The test positivity rate has crept up to 14%, which is around the provincial average. Other regions are seeing upwards of 19 to 20%, and we should expect our text positivity to increase another couple of weeks before plateauing,” she predicted.
She termed the increase in waste-water indicators at the Cobourg site dramatic – last week's reading is .052, up from .023 the previous week. In that connection, she announced the addition of a Minden site to the ones in Lindsay and Cobourg that they are monitoring with the support of the province.
Dr. Bocking expects these increases to continue locally for the next two to three weeks.
One of the most troubling increases over the last couple of weeks has been the rise in hospital admissions due to COVID-19, eight of them over the last week.
“Although Omicron does not necessarily cause more severe illness, the fact that it is so infectious – resulting in a higher number of absolute infections – we are going to see more hospital admissions at a time when most hospitals, health units, emergency departments usually experience a downturn in activity,” Dr. Bocking said.
“Our acute-care partners are not experiencing down time during this summer, and certainly we are seeing some increase associated with COVID-19 hospital admissions throughout the region.”
There are measures we can take as individuals and as a community to counteract these increases, such as staying up to date with your COVID-19 vaccinations.
The other common-sense measures we have heard for some time still make sense, she added.
Stay home if you do not feel well. And if the symptoms are consistent with COVID, use the rapid-antigen test. If it is positive, observe the provincial guidelines for isolation. If it is negative, don't take that as a final verdict – just to ensure it's not a false negative, repeat the test in 48 to 72 hours.
“With the increasing (COVID) activity we are seeing, I strongly recommend people wear a tight-fitting mask in indoor public places where distancing can't be maintained,” she suggested.
“Re-evaluate what social gatherings you are attending. I recognize summer is a really important time to reconnect with friends and family members, but look at ways you can do that while maintaining some precautions around COVID-19 to protect not only yourself but your loved ones who might be at higher risk of developing COVID-19.”
And if you are vulnerable yourself, she added, wear a mask at crowded outdoor events as well.
With another wave expected in the fall, those who are not up to date on their boosters may be debating whether to get the shot now or wait.
“There may or may not be vaccines that offer better protection against the Omicron subvariant,” she warned, so it comes down to personal risk. If you are someone close to you is in any way vulnerable – over age 60, for example, or with a medical condition that compromises your immune system – the strong recommendation is to get that booster now.
“The risk of acquiring COVID-19 across this region is higher than before, so the benefits of receiving that booster now likely outweigh the benefits of waiting until the fall,” she said.
The GO-VAXX bus is still making the rounds and there are still clinics run through the health unit, with shots also available at pharmacies and through some primary-care practices.
With the recent approval of the Moderna vaccine for children aged six months to five years, and the province making these shots available to this age group, she added, “your first stop really should be your primary-care provider.”
If they are not offering the shot or you don't have a family doctor, contact the health unit for an appointment.
“As a parent of young children, I know the decision whether to vaccinate is an important one, and one that parents will consider, I think, very deeply – and want to ensure they have thought about all the risks and benefits associated with a new vaccine.”
For those who think COVID-19 does not cause severe illness in this very young age group, she added a word of caution.
“That's likely true of the majority in this age group, but we are still seeing some severe illness in this age group and in older children,” she warned.
A graph of hospital admissions due to COVID would show this end of the age spectrum with a higher number of admissions, going down for young adults, then up again for older age groups. In the HKPR region, there have been nine hospital admissions of children aged six months to five years since January.
“While in many young children it might be a very mild illness, COVID-19 can and does cause severe illness in this age group. I encourage you to have a conversation with your primary-care provider or look at the other resources available so you are making an informed decision based on the risks and benefits of this vaccine.”
The rise in Monkey Pox cases is less dramatic. The first confirmed HKPR case was announced last week, and the total this week is two confirmed and one probable case (which means the test results are not back yet, but the symptoms and exposure are consistent with a new case).
“The risk to the general population is still incredibly low,” she said.
“We know it mostly circulates among intimate contact among men, but it can affect anyone of any age, any gender, any sexual orientation, any background – it just so happens initial infections were among a population group with a higher risk due to the activities they were engaging in.”
There is a vaccine that can be used for both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis. The province has set out eligibility criteria, and a series of clinics is planned starting Friday in Port Hope. More clinics will be planned if the need and the demand is there. Meanwhile, she said, anyone who meets eligibility criteria and is unable to get an appointment for the shot, “call the health unit, and we will make arrangements for them to receive it.”
