By Cecilia Nasmith
A four-stage colour-coded COVID-response system compiled by the Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit is set to assess the community COVID level and the threat of new variants as they appear – with yellow, orange, red and hot-pink stages.
At the board's March meeting, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Natalie Bocking explained the system that has come out of extensive planning in order to manage the virus most effectively – and spring into action as soon as possible after a new variant of concern is identified.
Each colour has its own name and characteristics.
Slow Burn (yellow) indicates a slow trickle of activity, with vaccines and naturally occurring immunity effective enough that no additional restrictions are required – and the worst of it occurring in what she termed respiratory season (and what many call colds-and-flu season).
Peaks And Valleys (orange) finds booster doses still effective, but outbreaks are a little larger and a little more frequent. Most occurrences are during respiratory season, but not all.
Full Surge (red) indicates a new variant of concern for which protection is less effective, the risk of reinfections is high, and there is severe illness and higher mortality. Broader public-health restrictions would likely be needed, similar to what we experienced with Omicron.
Beyond Capacity (hot pink) indicates a surge beyond the health unit's capacity – high transmissibility, large waves of infection, anti-virals less effective against an illness which is more severe. More regulations (such as masking mandates) would probably result.
Along with these metrics, Dr. Bocking said, they have also set up responses to each level.
At this point in the pandemic, she added, the management of COVID-19 has undergone a paradigm shift from broader community-level restrictions to individual risk assessment and risk mitigation. With changes in public-health policy accelerating – and the Reopening Ontario Act expiring at the end of the month, though some regulations will continue for an additional 30 days – Dr. Bocking gave a snapshot of the COVID picture in the region.
She reported a continued decrease in new lab-confirmed cases reported daily, now averaging fewer than 20. There have been only three hospital admissions in the last week, and the test positivity rate remains under 10% - 9.3% for that week. Waste-water surveillance data remain stable in the low-to-moderate range for both Lindsay and Cobourg.
“All these indicators, to me, really demonstrate Omicron is still here. We still have COVID-19 circulating in the community,” she declared.
“It has improved dramatically from what it was at its peak in January, but it certainly has been very slow to decline further.
“While we are seeing some decrease, I would say it is a slow decline, if not a plateau. But what's reassuring is the number of new hospital admissions declining.”
Dr. Bocking shared year-to-date figures – 80 hospital admissions, 18 ICU admissions, 28 deaths and 40 outbreaks that qualify to be monitored by the health unit.
Vaccination continues to be a primary emphasis, she said. And of those aged 18 and older, 60.7% have their boosters. In the five-to-11 age group – a group not eligible for boosters – 48.8% have one dose, and 28.5% have both.
They will continue to support vaccine administration through targeted mobile clinics and continuing the school-based clinics. With 48 of these offered to date, mostly during school hours, she said, “we are thankful for the school boards and principals and staff we have worked with.”
Dr. Bocking stressed that all children receiving vaccines through these clinics did so only with parental consent.
“Parents who indicated they wanted to be present for the vaccination were present as well.”
Dr. Bocking hopes masking will continue, not only for those who themselves are vulnerable individuals but also for those who have regular friends-and-family contact with vulnerable individuals. And ideally, supportive members of the community would keep this in mind when making their own masking choices.
Looking ahead, Dr. Bocking discussed program restoration for so many other health-unit functions that have been either unavailable, curtailed or shifted on-line during the pandemic. For example, two years have gone by without oral screening in schools. And the seniors' dental program was only able to continue with the help of partners to implement it.
And just because there is the hope of moving on from COVID doesn't mean COVID can be forgotten.
“None of us has a crystal ball, and the best-laid plans continue to be challenged, based on virus activities and other variables we see,” she said.
But they are remaining alert to the possibility of new variants, how transmissible they might be, whether they result in more severe health impacts, if there is a risk of reinfection, how effective the vaccines are against them.
“We may have little time to plan, once a new variant of concern is identified,” she said, citing Omicron as an example.
