By Cecilia Nasmith
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit Medical Officer of Health Dr. Natalie Bocking gave a new metric on the improving COVID-19 picture locally at her weekly media scrum.
Along with the decreasing numbers, Dr. Bocking said, the media scrum will now take place every other week.
As Communications Officer Bill Eekhof explained, this is reflective of the improving situation. And it's the second time the weekly sessions have gone biweekly as a result of the COVID picture evolving in a positive way, though conditions late last year put the sessions back on a weekly basis.
Giving the latest epidemiology, Dr. Bocking said not much had changed since last week's update. It's what she termed “a steady state of activity.
“It's a significant decrease, certainly, from the peak of Omicron activity about a month ago, but still not quite down to the very, very low activity we saw in between the third and our most recent wave of COVID activity.”
Lab-confirmed COVID diagnoses tend to number between 20 and 30 each day, and the test positivity rate remains around 12%. At the peak of Omicron, the test positivity rate was 20%, Dr. Bocking pointed out – however, prior to Omicron becoming the dominant variant, a test positivity rate of 2% to 3% was typical.
“So we are not down at the level we would like to be, but it's certainly an improvement,” she said.
The rate at which they are identifying outbreaks is slowing, and they are currently monitoring eight in high-risk settings within the HKPR region (three of them in retirement or long-term-care homes).
Waste-water surveillance data from the district's two sites (in Cobourg and Lindsay) show COVID indicators are significantly down from what they were at the peak of this most recent wave, she said, “though not quite down to what we would consider a very low level of activity.”
While Omicron is still out there and transmission is still occurring, Dr. Bocking continued, the impact on our hospitals and public-health services is manageable.
They are also seeing a decrease in the rate of new onset of severe illness from COVID-19. Though there have been 63 hospitalizations in the region since Jan. 1, she said, there have been only 14 ICU admissions.
“Vaccinations remain one of the most important tools that we have in preventing severe illness related to COVID-19, and that's particularly important for those at higher risk of severe illness – individuals with medical conditions that compromise their immune systems and those individuals who are older and at higher risk of severe illness.”
Among the HKPR population aged 18 and older, 60.5% have a booster shot.
Among the HKPR population aged five to 11, 48.1% have a first shot. Given the eight-week interval between first and second shots that was recommended for optimal immune response and the fact that this age group was only approved for the vaccine at the beginning of December, they are only starting to administer second shots to these kids.
The health-unit-led mass-immunization clinics in Cobourg and Lindsay are closing at the end of this week. In replacement, health-unit offices in Port Hope and Lindsay will begin offering shots on a walk-in basis – people of any eligible age who need a first, second or third shot. This begins March 4, and the shots will be administered Fridays and Saturdays through the end of the month.
Except for the odd day when weather interfered, school-based vaccination clinics continue to serve the youngest residents of the community (with parental consent only), and Dr. Bocking thanks both the schools and the school boards for their help in making these sessions go smoothly.
She added that anyone can always get the latest news on available clinics, their locations and their hours on the health unit website.
The big news in immunizations is Health Canada's approval of Novavax as a fifth alternative, joining Pfizer, Moderna, Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The big news is that it is a subunit protein vaccine, as opposed to an mRNA (like Pfizer and Moderna) or viral vector (like Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson) – which might overcome the vaccine hesitancy some people have struggled with, since it's of the same technology as many vaccinations in common and accepted use.
The current recommendation of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization is that – given the effectiveness and robust safety data of mRNA vaccines – it is best to have a Pfizer or Moderna shot. Novavax would be their second recommendation, followed by the viral vector vaccines.
Dr. Bocking does not know when Novavax might be available locally, but said the health unit would keep everyone up to date.
Nothing the accelerated timeline of lifting restrictions, she said that March 1 will see capacity limits lifted in all settings and proof-of-vaccine requirements suspended. She expects the requirement for masking will be lifted at some point, but probably not before the end of March – depending, of course, on whether case numbers remain manageable after the changes of March 1.
“We continue to reiterate our key public health messages,” she said.
“We encourage people to continue to wear masks, to continue to be cautious in the types of social gatherings they are having.
“We are all feeling our spirits lifted with the lifting restrictions. But we also know there is still COVID-19 virus around being transmitted, and we want to continue to protect our community members who are most vulnerable.”
Dr. Bocking acknowledged the difficulty of policy decisions that resulted in the easing of measures that have been in place for so long. It is likely they will result in increased case numbers, but probably not beyond the ability of our health-care system to handle. And on the other hand, there are also risks and harms to keeping restrictions in place for too long.
“The risks of lifting these measures are not as high as they used to be, and the benefits are strong,” she stated.
“I caution everybody to be aware COVID-19 activity is still around, and there are some very basic measures we should continue to do – wearing masks in indoor settings, staying home when you are sick and getting vaccinated.”
Commenting on reports of a new variant, Dr. Bocking said there is no reason for alarm at this time. She described it as a subvariant of Omicron known as the BA.2 variant. It is becoming dominant in Denmark and the United Kingdom.
“It seems to be equally as infectious as the original Omicron,” she said.
“There's no change, really, in the level of severe illness.”
One reassuring aspect is that it has been circulating for a number of weeks, she pointed out.
“If it was going to cause a new level of activity, such as what we saw in Omicron in December, that would be apparent by now. But we need to pay attention.
“We are seeing it now in Ontario, but I don't think it will cause another subsequent wave.”
Still, she said, variants and mutations will happen as long as COVID exists. Some of these evolutions will result in a stronger variant that infects more people, possibly more severely. We can only keep our fingers crossed that we have a bit of breathing room before that happens.
