By Cecilia Nasmith
There is strength in numbers – and in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the higher the numbers of people getting their vaccinations, the stronger the community.
To that end, Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Natalie Bocking is urging everyone without a shot to get that first vaccination, and also urging everyone with an appointment for a second shot to look into the possibility of getting it sooner.
Running down the current numbers, Dr. Bocking mentioned that the seven-day rolling average per 100,000 population in the HKPR region is currently 13.2 cases and the test positivity rate continues to stay below single digits – 0.64% is the latest figure.
The City of Kawartha Lakes is where all of the 23 currently active cases are, in large part due to an outbreak at a social-housing development.
The latest available figures show 36 cases of the Delta variant, two of which are in Northumberland County and 33 of which are in Kawartha Lakes.
“The province estimates that more than 80% of new cases identified are projected to be the Delta variant. This is similar to what we saw prior to Wave Three where the Alpha variant slowly increased as a proportion of cases confirmed to be COVID-19,” Dr. Bocking said.
“It's certainly not surprising we are seeing the Delta variant here, and we should expect to see that the majority of cases moving forward will be the Delta variant.”
The optimistic part of her report these days tends to be vaccination figures. As of Monday, 75.5% of the HKPR population aged 12 and up have first doses, and 40.9% of this group have both shots and are considered fully vaccination under current recommendations.
“This is really an important milestone. I think this is a great number,” Dr. Bocking said.
“There is no magic number in terms of what will help prevent the further spread of the Delta variant other than to say we want that number to be as high as possible.”
Against this new variant, having one shot is better than nothing – but not as effective as it was against the older variants. But it does help prevent hospitalizations and severe illnesses, she said.
And when you have two shots, you are as well protected against the Delta variant as you are against any of the others.
The prepondance of new cases identified are among unvaccinated people, she added – at a time when there seems to be a lower intake of first doses among the younger population.
For example, percentages with first doses works out to 56% among those aged 12 to 17, 58.4% among young adults aged 18 to 29 and 85.8% among those aged 60 and up.
“Overall, what these numbers tell me is, our uptake of first doses has certainly plateaued. This is consistent with the rest of the province,” Dr. Bocking said.
“I want to emphasize the importance of COVID-19 vaccinations among youth and young adults. I would encourage them to look at what the opportunities are to access vaccines.”
The five mass-immunization clinics continue to process 300 to 800 individuals a day, and the Cobourg Community Centre is one of the two that have set aside certain hours for walk-in vaccinations for anyone who has not as yet had a shot. And all have begun offering the chance to sign up for a stand-by list at the end of each day to ensure no doses are wasted.
Supplies are such that 14,500 appointments at these five sites are available to be booked, Dr. Bocking said.
Campbellford Memorial Hospital is one of two sites offering additional clinics, and the Ontario Health Team-Northumberland urges everyone to tune in to their social-media accounts to keep up with mobile and pop-up clinics they are offering (some of them in rural areas like Colborne and Roseneath).
And at last count, Dr. Bocking was aware of almost two dozen pharmacies in the region offering Pfizer and Moderna shots.
Finally, there are the primary-care teams offering shots to the patients on their own rosters.
As the crisis phase of the pandemic passes, there is already thought to how and when the mass-immunization clinics will be dismantled in favour of another strategy to deliver the shots. The model adapted for annual flu shots, which depends largely on pharmacies, may be the way to go – both to complete vaccinations and in case boosters may be needed at some future time.
And much as we have had to learn about the previously unknown COVID-19 on the fly and in a crisis situation, Dr. Bocking added, there has not been much time to focus on what are known as long haulers – COVID-19 patients who were left by the disease with chronic health conditions. This should change as less focus is needed on mass immunization.
As the province contemplates taking Step Three on its Roadmap to Recovery, Dr. Bocking said, the province's medical officers of health – right up to Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore – are urging caution to ensure there has been enough time since Step Two to be able to monitor and analyze any impacts resulting from loosened restrictions.
“We know the Delta variant is well rooted among our community now. We know the Delta variant spreads easier from person to person, and we know the vaccine – with one dose – is not as effective against symptomatic disease,” Dr. Bocking said.
“We want to ensure if any restrictions are issued, as people have the opportunity to be more mobile and they start to gather indoors and outdoors, that we are picking up on any further transmission and preventing that from escalating into another wave.”
