By Cecilia Nasmith
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Natalie Bocking actually used the term “light at the end of the tunnel” as she offered this week's media update on the COVID-19 situation.
To date, the region has seen 2,158 confirmed cases. Of the eight that are currently active, only one is in Northumberland County.
No outbreaks remain, though Dr. Bocking referred to monitored situations – a couple of cases where there may have been one case in a workplace but no demonstrated cases of transmission.
The test positivity rate is 0.5%, and the cases-per-100,000 population rate that peaked at 90 during the third wave has fallen to an average of 5.3 over the past seven days. This looks especially good compared to rates of 300 to 400 in areas with significant COVID-19 activity.
In the 12-and-over age group, 74.5% of the population has one dose and 30.8% have two.
Breaking it down further, the 12-to-17 age group has seen 54.3% get first doses, and that number rises to 57% if you look at the 18-to-29 group.
Given these improving numbers, and those throughout the province, Dr. Bocking said she feels hopeful.
Characteristics of cases identified in the last 14 days show that 20% of these cases are under the age of 20. As for source, 40% are traced to household contacts and 36% have no known source of transmission.
While new cases in Ontario tend to be 50% Delta variant, the HKPR region has had only 32 such cases – though this number is bound to rise as more laboratory reports come in.
Dr. Bocking has noticed that the number of people getting a first dose is starting to level off.
“I would certainly like to see that number increase as high as possible, but there is no magic number – especially given the circulation of variants that spread easier and faster, and we don't know what additional variants may come in the future,” she said.
Looking ahead to the fall and the possibility of things like organized sports, music events and other activities everyone used to enjoy, she added, “vaccination coverage will play an important and defining role.”
Dr. Bocking cited a recent resurgence of the COVID-19 Delta variant in the Waterloo region to illustrate this point.
“Among the cases, something like 75% were among individuals who were not vaccinated, 20 to 25% among partially vaccinated individuals and a very, very small amount among the fully vaccinated,” she said.
And among this last group, any cases that occurred were very mild or even asymptomatic, with no hospitalizations.
Anyone aged 12 and over can book a first shot. Anyone aged 18 and over who had a first shot the appropriate time ago – 28 days ago for Moderna, 21 days ago for Pfizer – is eligible for a second (though, for simplicity's sake, the provincial system requires a 28-day separation across the board).
Certain 12-to-17-year-olds can get a second shot sooner – for example, Indigenous youth, those with high-risk health conditions and those who live in what are considered Delta-variant hot spots.
Dr. Bocking urges anyone in need of a shot to explore every avenue – and there are several. Mass-immunization clinics continue, and mobile clinics (like the ones organized in Cobourg, Port Hope and points east by the Ontario Health Team-Northumberland) are being set up, with pharmacies and some primary-care teams also offering vaccinations. There is also talk of perhaps setting up walk-in clinics that might be a draw for anyone who might have thought the provincial booking system was too difficult to tackle.
The 9,300 weekly Pfizer doses the HKPR received weekly will fall – to a combined 8,100 the first two weeks of July. But Moderna supplies are rising.
Dr. Bocking repeated the word interchangeable in relation to the two mRNA vaccines.
“Two different brands of essentially the same vaccine,” she summed up.
“There are small components that are different, but how they work are essentially the same.”
Knowing that Pfizer is still the only vaccine approved for the 12-to-17 age group, she added, Pfizer is being prioritized for that age group.
Dr. Bocking spoke on the day the province entered Step Two of the province's reopening plans, bringing back such activities as overnight camps, increased capacity limits at certain retailers, and more opportunities for gatherings.
“I think this is a welcome relief, not just to businesses but individuals and families.”
Step Three is supposed to follow in three weeks, and Dr. Bocking reiterated the opposition of Ontario's medical officers of health to shortening that time.
“We need a period of time to monitor what the impact is for reopening to see if we are seeing a resurgence of activity, with the Delta variant being more infectious. We want to be cautious, to make sure we don't have to take a step back.”
Guidance is coming out for those who are fully vaccinated – defined as receiving a second dose at least 14 days ago – and rules that govern visits to long-term-care homes will be loosening. This recognizes the fact that 90 to 95% of these residents are fully vaccinated.
“Many things we are seeing look like that light at the end of the tunnel,” she said.
It is too early to state what might be advisable in terms of future booster shots, but Dr. Bocking said Canada will watch with interest as the situation evolves in countries that got an earlier start such as the United States, Israel and some European countries.
Observations will also be made when they reopen school, though Ontario has its own data from when school was open in-person over the past year.
“One thing to remember about school transmission is, it was often a reflection of what was happening with virus activity at community level,” Dr. Bocking said.
“When community transmission was quite high, you would see opportunities for it to be introduced into schools.”
With vaccination efforts continuing in the interim, she said, “hopefully we will see very little community transmission and less opportunity for the virus to be introduced into the schools.”
She said that infection-prevention and -control measures should continue in the schools, whether or not the children have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.
