By Cecilia Nasmith
Dr. Ian Gemmill shared bad news and good news – variants and vaccines – at this week's Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit media scrum.
Only vaccines offer any chance of getting past the pandemic, and Dr. Gemmill was pleased to announce that all 1,700 long-term-care residents of the region who wish to and are able to be vaccinated have been.
Next week, they are expecting a shipment of more than 4,500 Pfizer vaccines (“based on six doses per vial”) that will let them begin the process of vaccinating the staff and essential care givers at these facilities and, after that, the highest-priority health-care workers who are most at risk.
“The floodgates haven't opened, but the supply is improving,” he said.
“For people in the general population, it will be a while yet, because we need to get the people at greatest risk first. But it won't be long. The time will pass faster than you think.”
Meanwhile, a cumulative term for the variants from other countries has emerged – variants of concern. Though they have not identified which variant it is (and Dr. Gemmill expects they will discover it's the British one, since that is most common) – the single variant case identified in Port Hope is now three cases.
Fortunately, the two additional cases were from the same household as the original case, and all were already quarantined anyway so – for now - “this is a controlled situation.”
Though these three people might well get better and that's the end of the variants, Dr. Gemmill noted that variants of concern throughout the rest of the province are on the rise so it may not be the last local case.
The Medical Officer of Health provided his regular epidemiology report at a time when the region is closing in on 1,000 cases, 107 of which occurred in the previous 14 days. Of those 107, he said, most of them were not from outbreaks. Meanwhile, the region's most troubling outbreak at a long-term-care home in Lindsay seems to be settling down.
“The majority of cases tend to come from household contacts, close contacts and some inadvertent exposures,” Dr. Gemmill said.
The age group most affected over the past 14 days is the 30-39-year-olds, followed closely by 20- to 29-year-olds. This would seem to indicate an age group that might not be paying attention to restrictions on gatherings.
“I am inferring from this perhaps some of these gatherings we are trying to discourage probably are still happening,” he said.
“I am a little worried there is a spread happening, possibly inadvertently, possibly through gatherings.
“I just have to repeat the message: continue social distancing, continue with two metres distancing when you have to go out, but do not gather or travel.”
Dr. Gemmill noted that the orange code in which the region reopened was determined by the province, not by the health unit.
“While more services are available and more services will be open, it doesn't mean things are back to normal or that we should behave as if things are back to normal,” he stressed.
“The only thing worse than being in lockdown is being in and out and in and out of lockdown.”
One danger of emerging from a lockdown and the depressing effect it has on case numbers is that people see the low numbers – which are a direct effect of the lockdown – and relax their precautions.
“It's important to remember that 98% of the population has not been infected. If people start to gather, cases are going to increase and we may begin to lose the benefits we had from being in lockdown.”
Dr. Gemmill did express concern over people coming to stay at properties they own on the beautiful lakes of the Northumberland-Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes region, many of them from red or gray zones.
“We are not supposed to travel but, as property owners, there's nothing in place, no government policy or regulation to stop people from doing so,” he said.
“Permanent residents are worried about coronavirus coming in. For those of you already here, if you are here, that's fine, but stay in your property. Don't be going out to gatherings. If you need essential things, that's fine, but please do it in the way that has been recommended.”
