By Cecilia Nasmith
Though an upgrade to green from the current yellow COVID-19 code is probably not in the cards, Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge District Health Unit Medical Officer of Health Dr. Ian Gemmill continues to be encouraged by the trend of the numbers.
The previous 14 days saw only 51 new cases across the region, he said at this week's media scrum, most of them not associated with outbreaks.
“There are a couple, but they're minor workplace incidents rather than long-term-care homes, so that's a very good thing,” Dr. Gemmill said.
The incidence of 13 cases per 100,000 population is lower than last week. About half the cases are in Northumberland County, he continued, while the rest are split pretty evenly between the City of Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton County. The surprise here is that Haliburton's numbers were quite low until recently.
“Things can just turn around and surprise you,” he said.
“Until we get two doses of vaccine into everybody's arms, it's a reminder that we have to adhere to our personal preventive measures.”
In the HKPR region, Dr. Gemmill said 12,000 people have one dose, and another 2,000 have both doses.
About half of cases that turn up are variants of concern, which is consistent with the province as a whole.
At this moment, the age group most affected is those under the age of 20, he reported, and most cases seem to result from close contact.
“I think in some of these cases, people weren't as careful as they could or should have been to prevent themselves from becoming infected,” Dr. Gemmill said.
“We cannot let our guard down on these personal protective measures until we have lots of vaccine in arms and guidance from those whose job it is to advise us.”
The provincial on-line and phone system has rolled out. It has glitches, but – unlike other provinces' systems – it never crashed and the province continues to work on the glitches. The system is geared to birth dates, and they are now booking appointments for those born in 1946 or earlier.
The system is also predicated on postal codes so, if an appointment is not available at one of the region's six mass-vaccination sites, it will direct you to a site closest to your postal code.
Locally, Dr. Gemmill said, appointment spots are full.
“We are not booking any appointments into the system unless we have vaccine to back it up,” he explained.
“No one is going to get an appointment and then be told when they arrive, 'There's no vaccine for you.' Appointments are being limited by supply. As it increases, we will offer more appointments at the six sites I described to you last week.”
One group of concern is health-compromised people in home and community care who are not 75 or older. A 60-year-old with a heart condition, for example, might have a long wait for his or her age group to come up.
In such cases, the health unit is inviting these individuals to contact them for a link through which they can book an appointment. The information is also being posted on the health unit website.
Some community agencies (such as Community Care Northumberland) are stepping forward for those who need transportation to their appointments. But for the truly homebound, plans can be made (once supplies of a fridge-stable vaccine like AstraZeneca are received locally) to involve Emergency Medical Services in at-home vaccinations for those who require them.
In the end, everybody will get the chance for a vaccination – which an estimated 70% or more of the population do want. Then, once everyone has a first vaccination, plans can begin for a second. The reason the province has opted for this arrangement is that a first dose provides at least some immunity, and it is preferable for everyone to have some level of immunity than for only half the population to have the highest degree of immunity - and the other half to have none.
Vaccinations in this region are exclusively Moderna or Pfizer so far, but Dr. Gemmill expressed confidence in all three. And all offer virtually 100% protection against serious complications, hospitalization and death.
AstraZeneca at this time is being offered mainly through some 300 pharmacies in Toronto, Windsor and Kingston. This number will be doubled in about a week, and Dr. Gemmill would love to see local residents have the option of a pharmacy in addition to whatever access avenues now exist.
If local pharmacies don't make the second expansion he added, there will be other expansions and other opportunities for local pharmacies to add to the local vaccination options.
As summer approaches, Dr. Gemmill was asked, what sports should parents sign their children up for.
“Sports where you don't have that close interpersonal contact with high-energy output that then spews droplets and virus,” he replied.
He has seen a lot of incidences among hockey players - “people are exercising very hard, skating very fast, fast heart rate, fast respiratory rate and, if you go into the boards, you can have very close contact.”
On the other hand, golf seems ideal – outdoors in a setting where social distancing is effortless.
One reporter wondered how the rules of prevention that we are so familiar with might change once a person gets vaccinated. While one wants to hope for the best, Dr. Gemmill said, there is really no guidance at this time.
As the population gains immunity, the health profession will be observing and collecting data. Once they have had time to observe and to verify, they will have guidance to offer.
News that has been heard elsewhere in Ontario of octogenarians on their own who cannot navigate the system to get a vaccination appointment (and may potentially just get left behind) must not be ruled out in the HKPR region, Dr. Gemmill said.
“That's why I think it's really important to have advocates if there are kids or other family members or maybe good friends who can help out.”
If there is no computer (or at least no computer expertise or internet connection), the provincial phone system has about 2,000 operators who stand ready to book appointments.
“One of our MPPs, David Piccini, is offering to help elderly constituents with their bookings,” he added.
If you know someone who might fall through the cracks, Dr. Gemmill would urge you to ask if he or she has had the shot, or might need help arranging one.
“I would not want any person who wants this vaccine to be missed,” he stated.
